John Tang

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Chinese Economy Slowing...Creating Opertunities

According to numerous Chinese financial experts, the Chinese economy will face greater uncertainty in 2016. The prospects of global economy recovery are still unclear. If the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates continuously, it will cause emerging economies to suffer capital outflow and local currency depreciation. China is under pressure of de-capacity and industrial deflation, and whether real estate investment will stabilize remains uncertain. Among these factors, the stabilization of the Chinese economy will depend more on global economic recovery, the Fed rate hike and domestic real estate investment, as excess capacity cannot be reduced in the short term. Economists forecasts that the economy will grow at 6.7 percent this year with further downward pressure in the first six months. But the economy will stabilize after the second quarter, as the government will strengthen the current fiscal and monetary policies and the previous policies will take effect gradually. More than likely, Chinese government will continue to depreciate the RMB to possibly 7.5/1 (compared to USD) to stimulate the manufacturing industry and exports. This will mean a devaluing of Chinese assets. This is the perfect time to invest and prepare for a rebound in 2017.

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